Israel’s Airstrikes On Iran Hurt Ukraine
Everything is connected
Thousands of Iranian-made Shahed drones have been launched at Ukraine over the past three years, killing civilians and damaging critical infrastructure.
If you live in Ukraine, you know the sound. Mopeds of the sky, as locals call them. I see them pass over my building quite often. So when news broke that the Iranian officer responsible for supplying drones to Russia was killed, I was OK with it. I know that won’t end the barrage of Shaheds terrorizing Ukraine, but I do feel good that the key man helping Russia to kill innocent people is dead.
Fuck him.
But Israel’s strikes will hurt everyone in the long term, starting here in Ukraine. We don’t have to look any further than Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs nuanced reaction to appreciate the stakes. The statement makes clear that they are a partner in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and helps to kill Ukrainian citizens. But, interestingly, that is where the criticism ends. The statement spent more time on how further escalation will increase tensions in the region.
This is diplomatese for “if Israel keeps this up, the U.S and Europe, our top military supporters, will send its weapons to the Middle East and not us.” Policy makers here are less concerned about peace in the Middle East peace as they are in how any violent uptick will draw attention away from Ukraine. This isn’t selfish thinking. It’s reality.
The attacks could boost Russia’s fledging oil prices, according to the Kyiv Independent:
For Russia, this could be the adrenaline shot needed to recover its anemic Ural crude prices, which have dropped 14% year-on-year from January to May, David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a market analyst group, told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia’s energy sector made up 35-40% of its budget revenues pre-full-scale invasion and is powering its war machine.
Western sanctions on Russian energy and the G7’s Russian oil price cap of $60 per barrel have hampered its profits, with Russia losing more than $150 billion over the last three years, but have yet to deal a crippling blow.
Until the Israeli attacks, the future wasn’t looking so bright for Russian crude. Europe is planning its 18th sanctions package hitting Russia's energy sector, and the G7 is pushing for a $45 price cap.
If Brent prices continue to rise, it will likely drag up Ural prices too, potentially funneling more money into Moscow's coffers, said Fyfe.
Ukrainians are staunch allies of Israel. But anyone can see that this recent attack wasn’t helpful for Ukraine and its carefully-worded reaction to Israel’s strikes on Iran makes that pretty obvious.
Let’s also address Israel’s reasoning for the attack, which, they say, was to hit its “nuclear weapons program.” I added quotations because even U.S. intelligence agencies, which monitor Iran’s military capabilities like a hawk, admit Tehran has not weaponized its civilian nuclear program. Trump, who stupidly pulled out of the nuclear deal brokered by the Obama Administration, is trying to restore it. So when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington had no role in the attack, I actually believe him—to an extent.
It doesn’t mean that I trust him.
His statement urging Iran not to target any U.S. interests in the region said a lot. “Yo, we ain’t do this. Please don’t hit us,” is what he basically said.
I don’t especially care for Rubio: he’s a sidekick for white nationalism; he works for a man who insulted him so much that I find his support for Trump feckless; his Christian nationalism is pretty theocratic. He’s a shameless, opportunistic coward. That said, I don’t think he’s lying (misleading? Probably) when he said the U.S. wasn’t involved in Israel’s strikes. Israel could have told White House officials some details but misled them. Trump administration officials may have know Israel was going to do something but didn’t know they would do that. No one knows how much detail Israel shared with the U.S. about their plans, so we’re all making educated guesses here.
As much as Washington has its head up Israel’s ass, this doesn’t help the Trump administration. I honestly believe Netanyahu played Trump and knows the White House won’t penalize him for doing so. He’s on record saying the U.S. can be “easily moved,” as far back as 2001. Bibi is a master of playing games with D.C. and knowing he’ll usually come out on top.
Iran threatened to attack British, French and U.S. military bases if it defends Israel, which could potentially pull the U.S. into a regional conflict. This would also defy Trump’s mantra of not pulling the U.S. into wars. I don’t trust a man who, according to The Washington Post, lied more than 30,000 times during his first term. But I do trust Trump’s devotion to his ego. A regional war would be highly unpopular in the U.S. —even among his base. As pro-Israel as MAGA may be, they don’t want to send their children to fight Iran, even for Israel. if only for the sake if upholding his ego, I think Trump would tell Bibi to fuck off before being pulled into a war.
Unless the Trump administration makes clear Israel is on its own if dares to defy White House commands of deescalation, the U.S. may be dragged into a conflict anyway. That would put him at odds with his base and damage any other Republican who is vying to replace him in 2028. Public opinion in Europe and the U.S. is turning against Israel, so western troops in the region is political suicide.
Playing footsies with Netanyahu comes with a price that may prove costly for everyone—including Ukraine. This is how interconnected foreign policy is. Ukraine had nothing to do with Israel’s attacks on Iran, but may very well suffer the consequences. Any war involving Israel—even without U.S. troops on the ground— will shift media attention here (whatever is left of it) away from Ukraine. Energy hikes will benefit Russia and its war chest to fight Ukraine and the West could very well temporarily divert critical military aid it has to support Israel.
None of these scenarios work in Ukraine’s favor.